Semiconductor stock prices turn around in the fourth quarter, Taiwan Semiconductor ETF welcomes dawn

2023/10/12

TechNews
October 05, 2023
Author Economic Daily Liao Xianlong

Foreign investors estimate that the inventory of semiconductor stocks in the fourth quarter is coming to an end, and urgent orders will appear again in 2024. In the future, stock prices will decrease with the number of days of inventory, and revenue in the fourth quarter will return to positive growth, starting a wave of deep decline and rebound, legal persons suggest Seize the key season of inventory turning in the fourth quarter, take on semiconductor ETFs at dips, and plan ahead before the semiconductor boom picks up next year. You will have a good chance of making capital gains in 2024.

Wang Yunru, manager of Shin Kong Taiwan Semiconductor 30 ETF, said that U.S. Treasury bond yields have continued to climb to new highs recently, causing U.S. technology stocks to be disgraced. Only semiconductor stocks have benefited from the overall industry inventory days falling from the peak in the first half of the year. Inventory reduction in the fourth quarter will come to an end. Past experience shows that the reduction in the number of days of semiconductor inventory is a favorable signal to encourage stock prices to rise.

In addition, the legal person estimates that the annual growth rate of global semiconductor revenue.

Although the annual growth rate has been negative every quarter since this year, the negative value has shrunk quarter by quarter. It is estimated that there will be a chance to return to positive growth in the fourth quarter. Wang Yunru believes that semiconductor revenue From the perspective of inventory adjustment progress or revenue outlook, industry fundamentals are expected to turn upward in the fourth quarter, which is the best time to invest in semiconductor ETFs.

Many research institutions predict that the high growth trend of global AI will remain unchanged in 2024. The performance of semiconductor-related supply chains driven by AI will also have the opportunity to become sweeter like eating sugar cane. Wang Yunru is also optimistic about Taiwan stocks next year in addition to AI themes. , the high-performance computing, high-speed transmission and high-frequency memory business opportunities driven by AI will also lead Taiwan's semiconductor industry to restart a new growth cycle, and the overall industry boom will recover from the bottom.

Foreign securities firms estimate that global AI capital expenditures will explode next year, from US$40 billion in 2023 to US$77 billion in 2024, with an annual growth rate of as high as 92%; Wang Yunru believes that the AI semiconductor field will benefit the most , the AI chip business opportunities are the most promising, including the AI chip business opportunities driven by Huida, which will continue to stimulate a resurgence of global technology giants to develop their own special application chips (ASIC). It is estimated that the average annual compound growth rate of ASIC chips will be as high as 30%. In Taiwan's semiconductor industry, leading factories such as IC design, silicon intellectual property (IP), and leading foundries that master advanced packaging, IC packaging and testing, will all play the role of practical promoters of special chips.

At the same time, in addition to the business opportunities of using special chips in the cloud, AI edge computing is expected to rise in 2024. The first to benefit is AI PC. Market research institutions predict that AI PC shipments next year will increase compared with this year. 10 times, AI PC will become a mainstream product in the market by 2025. For leading domestic IC design manufacturers, AI PC chip business opportunities are huge and it is expected to continue to make a breakthrough.

Wang Yunru said that almost all important AI key technologies are related to the semiconductor industry, especially Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, which is the first and most directly benefiting key supply chain in the global AI market. Investors are investing in Taiwan through the Taiwan Semiconductor ETF The semiconductor industry can capture the world’s key AI technology wealth in one fell swoop.

Wang Yunru is optimistic that semiconductor technology in 2024 will be able to meet the global market's demand for emerging applications such as AI, autonomous driving, and the Internet of Things due to breakthroughs in advanced processes and packaging technologies. The fundamentals of the overall semiconductor niche group will improve, and stock prices are expected to strengthen. Related semiconductors The rebound in ETF stock prices is worth looking forward to.

Judging from the stock price performance, the stock price performance of the five domestic Taiwan-stock semiconductor ETFs in the past month has been relatively resistant to the decline of the broader market.

This year, including the three semiconductor ETFs including Shin Kong, CITIC, and Fubon, the stock price growth has also outperformed the weighted index by a lot, which is good for investors. Generally speaking, the current stage is at the bottom of the boom cycle of the semiconductor industry. It is estimated that starting from the fourth quarter, the global semiconductor industry will officially embark on the road to economic recovery. If you want to pursue the stock price growth potential of the rebound in the semiconductor boom, you can currently add semiconductor ETFs. There is a "base" to grasp the future stock price.

Image credit: Photographer Jeremy Waterhouse
https://www.pexels.com/zh-tw/photo/3665442/

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