In 2024, Taiwan's semiconductor output value reached NT$4.17 trillion, an increase of 13.6%. In 2030, the focus of my country's IC manufacturing produ
MIC Industrial Information Research Institute
April 16, 2024
The Institute of Industrial Intelligence (MIC) held the 37th MIC FORUM Spring "Intelligence" seminar from 4/16 to 4/18. Today (16th) it released the forecast for Taiwan's semiconductor industry, analyzing market supply and demand changes and industry status dynamics. , predicting the global semiconductor production capacity distribution in 2030. Looking at the global semiconductor market in 2024, inventory adjustment is nearing completion, and terminal application product shipments have resumed positive growth. Coupled with long-term demand support such as automotive, HPC, and AIoT, it will have a positive impact on the recovery of the semiconductor industry. It is estimated that global semiconductor sales in 2024 The market size will return to positive growth.
The visibility of the semiconductor market in 2024 has become clearer, but it has not yet reached a full recovery.
According to estimates from MIC, Taiwan's semiconductor industry output value will grow by 13.6% annually in 2024, reaching NT$4.17 trillion, and the supply chain will emerge from the haze of high inventory. For the sub-industry, driven by advanced processes, Taiwan's wafer foundry revenue is expected to grow significantly in 2024, with an output value of 2.4 trillion, an annual growth of 15%; in terms of memory, supply and demand will be close to balance in the fourth quarter of 2023, and it is expected that in 2024 It has great growth momentum every year, with annual growth reaching 20%. Since the terminal demand for IC design and IC packaging and testing is still unclear, it is conservatively estimated that the output value will grow by 10% or 13%. Industry consultant Peng Maorong said that the visibility of the semiconductor market will be relatively clear in 2024, but it has not yet fully recovered, including that the supply chain is still in the adjustment stage and the industry's off-peak and peak season cycles have not yet returned to normal levels, so growth will be conservatively estimated.
Looking forward to the long-term development trend of semiconductors, Peng Maorong, MIC industry consultant of the Information Policy Council, said that the prospects are still promising. The research and development and deployment of new generation communication and networking technology and the introduction of AI technology will profoundly change the lifestyle and production model of human society in various application fields. , because semiconductors are the core support of the above-mentioned emerging technologies, which will drive the demand for semiconductor components to continue to rise. In addition, the vigorous development of the digital economy and the substantial increase in smart applications in various fields are driving the digital transformation process of the physical world. Many industries will accelerate the adoption of embedded systems, industrial control and other technologies, which will also drive the development of industry, automobiles, consumer electronics, etc. The demand for semiconductors in various fields will continue to drive the rapid expansion of the global semiconductor market.
Global semiconductor factory capital expenditures will grow by 2% in 2024. Major memory manufacturers will invest in HBM and DDR5
Paying attention to the investment dynamics of global semiconductor factories, MIC made two major observations. First, global semiconductor factory capital expenditures will plummet by 13% in 2023, and capital expenditures will return to positive growth in 2024. However, most major manufacturers still adopt austerity policies, and are expected to grow only slightly by 2%, reaching US$161.3 billion; looking forward to 2025, Global semiconductor factory capital expenditures are expected to increase to US$182.6 billion, a ten-year high, with an annual growth rate of 13%. Second, the investment focus of memory factories in 2024 will be on the production capacity of advanced process nodes such as HBM and DDR5, mainly to drive the rapid development of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for HPC applications such as the explosion of generative AI and supercomputers. The three major memory factories are competing in The fifth generation HBM (HBM3E) will be launched in 2024 and is expected to account for more than 50% of HMB shipments in the fourth quarter of 2024; in addition, the global HBM market will continue to expand. The global HBM market will be approximately US$4 billion in 2023, accounting for 10% of DRAM shipments. It is about 8%, and it is estimated that the proportion will reach 10%~15% in 2024.
In 2030, the center of my country's IC manufacturing production capacity will still be in Taiwan, accounting for 80% of the total production capacity.
Paying attention to the dynamics of semiconductor production capacity, MIC took stock of global production capacity and predicted the global production capacity distribution of Taiwanese IC manufacturers in 2030. It is estimated that global semiconductor production capacity will continue to grow by 6% in 2024, mainly due to the recovery of terminal demand, as well as the promotion of AI and HPC applications, coupled with government incentives, etc., accelerating the expansion of global advanced process and wafer foundry production capacity. In 2024, China's production capacity will account for 18% of the world's total, and production capacity expansion will increase by 6%. Further attention is paid to the production capacity distribution dynamics of China's IC manufacturers. In 2023, Taiwan's production capacity will account for 86% in Taiwan, and overseas such as mainland China 8%, Singapore 3%, Japan 2% and the United States 1%; looking forward to 2030, Taiwan is expected to still be Taiwanese factories are the focus of production capacity and are also the first mass production sites for the most advanced processes. It is estimated that Taiwanese factories’ production capacity will account for 80% in Taiwan, followed by Japan 7%, Mainland China 6%, Singapore 4%, the United States 2% and Germany 1%.
my country's third-category semiconductor output value reaches NT$19.6 billion in 2024 Data center optical fiber transmission drives silicon photonics development
Looking forward to the development of the semiconductor industry, MIC is focusing on two hot topics. 1. The output value of domestic Type III semiconductors in 2023 will be NT$18.3 billion, a decrease of 7% from 2022. This is mainly due to the fact that the domestic industry is mainly foundry and is adversely affected by the economic environment. In 2024, new wafer foundry capacity for domestic Class III semiconductors will be gradually opened, and domestic power component manufacturers will gradually enter the field of Class III semiconductors. It is estimated that the output value of China's Class III semiconductors will reach NT$19.6 billion in 2024 and NT$19.6 billion in 2025. Annual revenue reached NT$22.1 billion; 2. Optical fiber transmission in data centers continues to drive the development of silicon photonics technology. As data centers require higher transmission bandwidth and speed, optical fiber gradually replaces copper wires in high-speed data exchange applications. In addition to data transmission applications, the demand for sensing applications such as medical materials, self-driving cars, and aerospace will also accelerate the development of other silicon photonics-based products. Analytical technology products will mainly respond to the large-scale demand in the data center and communications fields in the short term. It is expected that as the computing demand for multiple applications of AI and HPC increases, circuit board-level optical data exchange technologies such as OBO and CPO will develop rapidly and eventually move within a single chip. Development of data transmission or external optical I/O.
Related links: https://mic.iii.org.tw/news.aspx?id=673
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