Big predictions for the technology industry in 2024! AI and the promising future of the automotive market

2023/11/07

TechNews
November 03, 2023
Author TechNews

Insights into AI application development from global wafer foundry trends
Demand for consumer electronics products has slumped along with the global economic downturn, and AI applications have driven demand for HPC chips to grow significantly against the trend. In addition to using solutions from existing chip suppliers, the trend of customized self-developed chips has also emerged, and high-speed computing applications have become the biggest driving force for advanced manufacturing processes. However, the excessive concentration of advanced process production capacity in Taiwan has also caused concerns among international customers. TrendForce data shows that as of the end of 2024, more than 70% of the world's advanced process production capacity is in Taiwan. Due to geopolitical risks, various countries have used generous subsidy policies to attract wafer factories to set up local factories. Taiwan's key position in semiconductors and changes in the global production capacity map have become the focus of the supply chain.

The global server market is changing rapidly, opportunities and challenges for Taiwanese manufacturers
Global inflationary pressure will continue in 2023, and both server OEMs and CSPs will continue to consolidate supply chain inventories and adjust annual shipments and ODMs production plans. This year, the server market will decline for the first time in recent years. Looking forward to 2024, the uncertainty of the global economic situation is still high, and with CSPs stepping up their investment in AI, server investment will have a crowding-out effect similar to this year, resulting in a suppression of the scale of server shipments. As for the supply chain, geopolitical risks and the subsequent effects of chain interruptions during the COVID-19 epidemic will cause the secondary supply chain migration led by US-based CSPs to continue to affect the server market in 2024.

Seizing the Generative AI Landscape: AI Server Market Forecast and Supply Chain Dynamic Analysis
This year, applications such as ChatBOT have driven the vigorous development of AI servers, and CSPs such as Microsoft, Google, AWS, etc. are actively investing. TrendForce estimates that the shipment volume of AI servers (including equipped with GPUs, FPGAs, ASICs, etc.) this year will exceed 1.2 million units. The annual growth rate is 38%, and it will grow by more than 33% in 2024, with AI accounting for nearly 12%, exceeding double digits. The market demand for NVIDIA's high-end AI chips A100 and H100 has grown significantly. Shipments have been revised upward to more than 70% year-on-year growth, and will grow by nearly 80% in 2024. The gradual expansion of self-developed ASICs by large CSPs is also worthy of attention, especially Google, AWS will play a leading role this year and next. The growth trend of AI servers has also driven supply chain memory, ODM/OEM, PSU, etc. to develop to high specifications.

AI wave drives HBM demand forward
HBM is a high-end AI chip memory, one of the DRAMs, and is supplied by the three major suppliers: Samsung, SK hynix and Micron. The AI boom has driven the demand for AI chips, and HBM demand will also increase this year and next. Original manufacturers have increased HBM production capacity. Looking forward to 2024, HBM supply is expected to improve significantly. In terms of specifications, AI chips need to be more efficient, and the mainstream of HBM will shift to HBM3 and HBM3e in 2024. As the demand for bits increases and the average sales price of HBM3 and HBM3e is higher than that of previous generation products, HBM revenue is expected to grow significantly in 2024.

Global Automobile Market Outlook 2024: The Warring States Period for Electric Vehicles is Coming
Chinese automakers are under pressure to expand overseas. Domestic demand is limited, and overseas markets are a necessary condition for survival. The convergence of Chinese brands will continue in 2024. The electrification progress of international automakers is very divergent. Lagging automakers are stuck in the dilemma of slow platform development and lack of competitiveness in vehicle prices. If they cannot get rid of the problem as soon as possible, they will gradually be marginalized. The decentralization of the supply chain is another test. In addition to requiring local assembly, the US electric vehicle purchase subsidy also restricts the origin of key battery minerals and battery components. The value ratio of the two will increase to 50% and 60% in 2024, and each country’s local The globalization strategy requires car manufacturers and suppliers to set up factories in various places. In a period when interest rates and inflation are high, every investment must be carried out step by step.

EV power efficiency improves, third-class semiconductors play a key role
In 2024, new energy vehicles (BEV and PHEV) will continue to promote the growth of the electric vehicle (HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCV) market. New energy vehicles are gradually moving towards NEP (New Electric Platform) platform production, and more compact and efficient power design has become the core competitiveness of car manufacturers. The third type of semiconductor has become a key component to improve the efficiency of power energy conversion due to its smaller size and lower loss. Led by the demand for main drive inverters, TrendForce predicts that the demand for SiC wafers will grow by approximately 40% annually in 2024. Car manufacturers are taking more advanced technological routes, and IDM factories in the third category semiconductor industry will continue to lead technological innovation in addition to actively expanding production.

Promoter of cabin intelligence: advancing into a new era of automotive panels
The global auto market is gradually recovering, and automakers are paying more and more attention to in-car display functions. The demand for automotive panels has been increasing year by year in recent years. In addition to the increase, there are also more and more requirements for automotive panel specification upgrades. In addition to the continuous enlargement of the observable size, improvements in brightness, resolution, contrast, etc. are also becoming more and more obvious. Automotive display panels are gradually developing from a-Si LCD to LTPS LCD. AMOLED panels are becoming more and more active in entering the automotive market. Mini LED BLU paired with LCD has also begun to enter the automotive market and will compete head-on with AMOLED panels. Car manufacturers will launch new projects in the next few years. . As the size of automotive panels continues to increase, the development of driver IC and touch IC architectures towards TDDI and the In-Cell trend have been confirmed, and will be a must-win for all driver IC manufacturers.

Global Automotive LED Market Trends: Lighting and Micro/Mini LED New Display Applications
The global economy is weak, and car manufacturers are using price cuts to stimulate buying sentiment, which has also entered the car market into a cycle of price competition, resulting in a significant decline in the price of automotive LEDs. Advanced technologies such as adaptive headlights (ADB Headlight), Mini LED taillights, through-type taillights, logo lights, and ambient lights are still expected to increase the size of the automotive LED market this year. Trends such as high dynamic contrast, regional dimming, wide color gamut, and curved surface design, Mini LED/HDR automotive displays are promoted by car manufacturers including General Motors, Ford, BMW, NIO, Roewe, Ideal, etc. Micro LED automotive transparent display screens are used for external advertising and internal information display, and are used in future smart cars. They will be introduced into the automotive market in 2026~2027.

The key to connecting environment, cars and people: analysis of the development of the Internet of Vehicles industry
The coverage, mobility and reliability of 3GPP's Release 17 network deepens 5G technology, coupled with the rapid expansion of global 5G base stations, driving the development of the Internet of Vehicles industry, through 5G network vehicle networking, roadside equipment and pedestrians and vehicles Internet connection, etc. It is estimated that 90% of the Internet of Vehicles will be covered by the Internet of Vehicles in 2028, with industry growth driven by advanced networking technology and security solutions; coupled with the recent acquisition of Autotalks by chip maker Qualcomm, it has become a leader in the Internet of Vehicles market and will launch a variety of Internet of Vehicles products. .

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