AI PC penetration rate increases, PCB manufacturers actively prepare for battle

2024/07/19

Business Times
July 15, 2024
Author Li Shuhui

AI PC will increase penetration in 2025, driving demand for HDI boards and new material numbers in the PCB industry, which will help increase ASP. PCB factories include Zhichao (8213), Yaohua (2367), and Jinxiang Electronics (2368) They are all actively preparing for the war, and since the PC market reaches 200 million units annually, once the replacement wave starts, the effect on quantity will be greater than that of AI servers.

Major research institutions have made predictions for AI PCs. Among them, IDC estimates that the number of AI PCs will be nearly 50 million this year, with a penetration rate of about 15%. It is estimated that by 2027, there will be 167 million AI PCs, with a penetration rate of nearly 60%; research According to data from the research agency Canalys, global AI PC shipments are expected to reach 48 million units in 2024, accounting for 18% of all PC shipments; shipments will exceed 100 million units in 2025, accounting for 40% of the total.

Zhichao, a major photovoltaic panel manufacturer, recently pointed out at a conference that AI PC has driven two major changes in PCB. First, the material part will move towards low loss in response to high-speed computing. In the past, GPU was an option, but now AI PC In the proofing, the GPU is on the board, and the increase in wiring density will lead the PCB board to move towards HDI at a certain rate.

As NB brand factories and ODM factories attack AI PC, Zhichao must have enough matching production capacity to back up orders. In 2024, the capital expenditure on AI PC (mainly HDI) will be at least 1.5 billion yuan, plus equipment For replacement, the total capital expenditure in 2024 will total 2 billion yuan, which is the peak of capital expenditure. Zhichao currently uses the Wuxi factory as the main base for AI PC proofing and certification.

Yaohua also stated at the press conference that customers are actively promoting the mass production of new AI PC material numbers. As AI PCs increase in complexity and enhance computing capabilities, they drive demand for high-speed materials and HDI. Yaohua has focused less on the PC field in the past. , the future AI PC is a big opportunity for Yaohua.

In response to the demand for AI servers and NB, the expansion of HDI demand consumes more production capacity. In addition, the number of layers of AI-related applications has increased from 16 to 18 layers to more than 20 layers. Therefore, the expansion rate of the Taiwan factory has increased from 10% last year. Increased to 20%, new production capacity will be opened in the third quarter of this year.

According to statistics from the Taiwan Printed Circuit Board Association, the top five HDI board manufacturers in the world are Huatong, AT&T, Jianding, Xinxing, and Zhending. If AI PCs can really be accepted by end consumers in the future, HDI usage is expected to increase significantly in the NB market. , and for the AI PC market, there are NB information boards or AI server board manufacturers that have already sent samples.

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